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# Measure Of Certainty - Pert

Posted On :  23.06.2018 11:06 pm

The time taken by an activity in a project network follows a distribution with a standard deviation of one sixth of the range, approximately.

Measure Of Certainty

The 3 estimates of time are such that

t o t m tp

Therefore the range for the time estimate is t p to  .

The time taken by an activity in a project network follows a distribution with a standard deviation of one sixth of the range, approximately.

The certainty of the time estimate of an activity can be analysed with the help of the variance. The greater the variance, the more uncertainty in the time estimate of an activity.

Problem 1

Two experts A and B examined an activity and arrived at the following time estimates.

Determine which expert is more certain about his estimates of time:

So, the variance is less in the case of A. Hence, it is concluded that the expert A is more certain about his estimates of time.

Tags : Operations Management - Network Problems
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