This is a conventional method of human resources forecasting method.
Techniques For Forecasting Resource Needs
The following techniques are usually used.
1. Managerial Judgment Method
2. Delphi Technique
3. Work-study Technique
4. Ratio-trend Analysis
5. Statistical and Mathematical Models.
Managerial Judgment Method
This is a conventional method of
human resources forecasting method. in this method managers prepare the
forecast of human resource needs of various categories in their own departments
on their past experiences. this method can be applied in two alternatives, top-down approach or bottom-up approach. in top-down
approach, top management prepares human resource plan for the organization as a
whole with the assistance of HR department. this plan is circulated among
various departments with an advice to make necessary amendments whenever
required with justification. after receiving the document from various
departments, human resource needs of various departments are finalized usually
in a committee meeting of department heads.
Delphi Technique
This technique is named after the
ancient Greek Oracle at the city of Delphi where the greek used to pray for
information about the future. In the present World Delphi Technique is used in
decision making in small groups. The problem and questions relating to HR
requirement and related issues will be circulated to the expert group. Their
suggestions and replies will be sent to others and if needed queries made and
final decision taken. This exercise is repeated until some consensus is
reached. Delphi technique is quite useful where the problem cannot be solved by
using analytical technique but its solution requires subjective judgements on a
collective basis.
Delphi Technique can be used for
forecasting human resource needs in two forms. First, it can be used to know
the trends for changing job profile and consequently, the changing personnel
profile across the country or at international level. Secondly, this technique
can be used to solicit views of experts in different functional areas of an
organization about the changing profile of personnel in their respective
departments in the light of changing environment. Such views are collected and
summarized by HR department to arrive at a decision about the types of
personnel needed in future.
Work Study Technique
Work study technique is based on
the volume of operation and work efficiency of personnel. Volume of operation
is derived from the organizational plan documents and increase/decrease in
operation can be measured. Work efficiency or productivity is measured by time
and motion study which specifies standard output per unit of time, say per
hour. Thus, the number of operatives required to complete specified volume of operation is .
However, standard output per hour
is not always a constant factor. Over a period of time it may increase due to
training and higher technology. In this way required personnel may be worked
out. Ratio –
Trend Analysis
Under this method, the main
emphasis is on the ratios between production/sales level and direct operatives;
ratios between direct operatives and other personnel say supervisory and
managerial personnel. These ratios are worked out for a number of years based
on the past records of the organization and future trends are projected on
these ratios. Such ratios can be worked out for
various categories of personnel such as ratio of supervisors and middle
management personnel, ratio of middle management personnel and higher level management
for a comprehensive forecast of human resource needs. Statistical and Mathematical Models
Following are the models that could be used for HR forecast.
1. Burack – smiter model
2. Regression analysis
3. Econometric analysis
In fact combination of different methods could also be used. Tags : Human Resources Management - Human Resource Planning
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