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Human Resources Management - Human Resource Planning

Techniques For Forecasting Resource Needs - Human Resource Planning

   Posted On :  12.06.2018 09:40 pm

This is a conventional method of human resources forecasting method.

Techniques For Forecasting Resource Needs

The following techniques are usually used.

1. Managerial Judgment Method

2. Delphi Technique

3. Work-study Technique

4. Ratio-trend Analysis

5. Statistical and Mathematical Models.

Managerial Judgment Method

 
This is a conventional method of human resources forecasting method. in this method managers prepare the forecast of human resource needs of various categories in their own departments on their past experiences. this method can be applied in two alternatives, top-down approach or bottom-up approach. in top-down approach, top management prepares human resource plan for the organization as a whole with the assistance of HR department. this plan is circulated among various departments with an advice to make necessary amendments whenever required with justification. after receiving the document from various departments, human resource needs of various departments are finalized usually in a committee meeting of department heads.

Delphi Technique

 
This technique is named after the ancient Greek Oracle at the city of Delphi where the greek used to pray for information about the future. In the present World Delphi Technique is used in decision making in small groups. The problem and questions relating to HR requirement and related issues will be circulated to the expert group. Their suggestions and replies will be sent to others and if needed queries made and final decision taken. This exercise is repeated until some consensus is reached. Delphi technique is quite useful where the problem cannot be solved by using analytical technique but its solution requires subjective judgements on a collective basis.
 
Delphi Technique can be used for forecasting human resource needs in two forms. First, it can be used to know the trends for changing job profile and consequently, the changing personnel profile across the country or at international level. Secondly, this technique can be used to solicit views of experts in different functional areas of an organization about the changing profile of personnel in their respective departments in the light of changing environment. Such views are collected and summarized by HR department to arrive at a decision about the types of personnel needed in future.
 

Work Study Technique

 
Work study technique is based on the volume of operation and work efficiency of personnel. Volume of operation is derived from the organizational plan documents and increase/decrease in operation can be measured. Work efficiency or productivity is measured by time and motion study which specifies standard output per unit of time, say per hour. Thus, the number of operatives required to complete specified volume of operation is .



However, standard output per hour is not always a constant factor. Over a period of time it may increase due to training and higher technology. In this way required personnel may be worked out.
 

Ratio – Trend Analysis

 
 
Under this method, the main emphasis is on the ratios between production/sales level and direct operatives; ratios between direct operatives and other personnel say supervisory and managerial personnel. These ratios are worked out for a number of years based on the past records of the organization and future trends are projected on these ratios.
 
Such ratios can be worked out for various categories of personnel such as ratio of supervisors and middle management personnel, ratio of middle management personnel and higher level management for a comprehensive forecast of human resource needs.
 

Statistical and Mathematical Models


Following are the models that could be used for HR forecast.

1. Burack – smiter model

2. Regression analysis

3. Econometric analysis

In fact combination of different methods could also be used.

Tags : Human Resources Management - Human Resource Planning
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